The Lindy Effect: Use Time as Your Filter (with AI)

A calm way to ignore hype and choose what endures

TL;DR

• The Lindy Effect is a filter for non-perishable things: ideas, books, principles, skills, and habits.

• It says: if something has survived for a long time, it is more likely to keep surviving.

• Lindy predicts persistence, not quality. Old is not automatically best.

• The practical move is core vs wrapper: keep the durable core, hold the wrapper loosely.

• AI helps you do this with a simple loop: extract → plan → confirm.

After reading, you will have a simple filter plus three copy-paste prompts to decide in minutes: ignore, small test, or commit.

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1) Learning framing: the goal is calmer choices in a fast-changing world (with AI)

A new story hits your feed.

In early February 2026, a “social network for AI agents” called Moltbook went viral. Screenshots spread. People reacted like it was a glimpse of the future. Excitement, fear, memes, hot takes. The emotional tempo was the point.

Then the spell weakened.

It became clear how easy this kind of “agent society” vibe is to manufacture. Some of the most viral posts were human-directed. The platform also filled up with familiar internet behavior: spam, scams, and attention grabs.

That leads to a simple question:

What makes online things durable, not just viral?

If you look at what people actually come together for, the core is stable: trust, shared context, belonging, reputation, real connection. When that core is missing, the wrapper takes over, and the wrapper is easy to game.

Hype is loud. Time is honest.

That is why the better question is this:

What part of this will still matter in 5 years?

That question is the heart of this week’s mental model: the Lindy Effect.

How AI helps

AI helps you think in a cleaner sequence:

• Extract the durable core from the noisy wrapper.

• Plan a small, low-regret test instead of committing inside a hype cycle.

• Confirm with evidence after time passes, so you keep what truly works and drop the rest.

2) The Lindy Effect in plain language (and why it works)

The Lindy Effect, also called Lindy’s Law, is a simple idea.

For non-perishable things, time is evidence. If something has survived for a long time, it is more likely to keep surviving.

Speed bump, because it prevents the most common misunderstanding:

Lindy predicts persistence, not quality.

A helpful rule of thumb is:

If a non-perishable has lasted X years, expect roughly X more.

The key is the phrase non-perishable. This model is not about physical objects that wear out. It is about things that can keep being reused without “spoiling.”

Three quick tests help:

• Can it be copied or reused without degrading?

• Is it mostly information or behavior, not a consumable?

• Does it survive interface churn?

This is why old books that people still recommend are often worth your attention. They have been tested by changing tastes, criticism, and competition. A brand-new trend has not been tested yet.

One more guardrail keeps you honest. Longevity can come from lock-in, habit, and switching costs. Treat Lindy as a ranking input, then use real evidence when you have it.

The practical payoff is simple.

When you feel overwhelmed by novelty, Lindy gives you a calmer default. It pulls your attention toward what has earned its place over time.

And in fast-changing spaces, it gives you a smarter move: apply Lindy to the principle beneath the tool, not the tool of the week.

3) Prompts: use AI to extract the durable core, make a plan, and validate it (extract → act → confirm)

The Lindy Effect becomes useful when you can apply it quickly.

That is what AI is great for. It can help you separate the durable core from the noisy wrapper in minutes, and then turn that into a small experiment you can actually run.

Do not run all prompts at once. Pick the stage you are in:

• Prompt 1 = understand

• Prompt 2 = act

• Prompt 3 = decide

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3.1 Diagnostic prompt: extract the non-perishable core (analysis)

Use this when you see something new and want clarity fast.

Apply the Lindy Effect to this thing.

Return answers in three buckets:
A) Known (explicitly supported by what I pasted)
B) Inferred (reasonable, but not stated)
C) Guess (speculation — label it)

1) Describe it in one sentence.
2) Identify the non-perishable core (what would still matter in 5–10 years).
3) Identify the perishable wrapper (what is likely to change, get gamed, or vanish).
4) List 3 older analogs to the core (or say “no clear analogs yet”).
5) Recommendation: ignore / small test / invest attention — and why.
6) Bet size + confidence:
   - Bet size: small / medium / large
   - Confidence: low / medium / high

CONTEXT (paste article, notes, screenshots, claims):
[PASTE HERE]

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3.2 Build prompt: turn the core into a 7–14 day plan (action)

Use this when the core looks real and you want to try it without getting pulled into the wrapper.

Turn the Lindy “core” into a small plan I can actually run.

1) State the non-perishable core in one sentence.
2) Write the core as a measurable outcome (how I’ll know it helped).
3) Propose ONE durable default (a rule or habit) that captures the core.
4) Give me a 7–14 day experiment:
   - Day 1 setup (under 30 minutes)
   - Daily checklist (max 3 items)
   - One measurement
5) Tell me what to ignore for now (the perishable wrapper).
6) Add one friction fix (how to make it easier in real life).

CONTEXT & MY CONSTRAINTS (time/energy/budget):
[PASTE HERE]

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3.3 Lindy follow-up prompt: confirm durability after time passes (decision)

Use this after you tried the plan, or after the hype has had time to cool down.

Help me decide if this deserves to become a durable default (Lindy follow-up).

1) Restate the non-perishable core and the perishable wrapper as they look now.
2) Summarize the evidence I gathered (not vibes).
3) Decide: Keep / Iterate / Drop — and why.
4) If Keep: propose a “maintenance version” I can do long-term with low effort.
5) If Iterate: change ONE variable and give me the next 7-day test.
6) If Drop: extract the lesson and suggest a better Lindy-leaning alternative.

WHAT I TESTED & RESULTS / NOTES (paste):
[PASTE HERE]

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4) Principles and traps

The Lindy Effect works best as a calm filter, then a small experiment.

Principles

• Rank, do not prove.
  Lindy helps you decide what deserves attention when certainty is impossible. It does not settle the truth.

• Core vs wrapper.
  The core compounds. The wrapper rotates. When something new appears, ask what stays valuable if the product disappears.

• Match bet size to evidence.
  New and untested means a small bet. Old and repeatedly useful earns a bigger bet.

• Barbell your attention.
  Keep most of your life on durable foundations, and reserve a small budget for experiments.

• Wait for the chorus.
  Do not reorganize your life around one loud week. Let time reveal what keeps showing up.

Traps

• Survivorship bias.
  You see the winners. You do not see the graveyard. Do not treat survival as the only signal.

• Lock-in.
  Some things persist because leaving is painful, not because they are great. Longevity can predict stickiness without implying quality.

• The anti-new reflex.
  Lindy is not a reason to dismiss new things. It is a reason to size your bets.

• Wrong unit.
  Apply Lindy to the principle, not the interface. Many “new tools” are old principles in new packaging.

• Staying abstract.
  If you never run a small test, you never learn. Turn insights into a plan, then decide based on evidence.

5) Closing: the practical payoff

You are not behind. The surface is loud.

When new things are easy to create, it gets easier to manufacture excitement, proof, and popularity. That does not mean you should become cynical. It means you need a calmer filter.

The Lindy Effect gives you that filter. It helps you invest attention in things that have earned its place over time, and it helps you treat novelty with the right bet size.

Use the loop:

• Extract the durable core.

• Act with a small plan.

• Confirm with evidence.

• Lock it in as a durable default.

Hype is loud. Time is honest.

That is the payoff. Less whiplash. More compounding.