Using AI to Stop Overreacting to Early Numbers: The Law of Small Numbers
This guide gives you simple AI prompts that spot when your evidence is thin, stop you from overreacting to early numbers, and help you choose a better next step.
TL;DR
The Law of Small Numbers is a simple mental model that reminds you a few early results do not tell you the full story. In real life, that looks like judging a diet after three weigh ins, calling a side project a failure after one slow week, or deciding a habit is not for you after two hard attempts.This guide turns the Law of Small Numbers into something you can actually use, including AI prompts that help you notice when you are still very early and design better small experiments before you change course.
1. The Illusion of Signal
You launch a small product or newsletter.
In the first week it makes 12 dollars and gets a few signups.
It is easy to read that as proof that the idea is weak, the niche is too small, or you are not the kind of person who can make things work.
The same pattern shows up when your weight goes up after a few careful days of eating, or when two early tries at a new routine feel bad and you decide it is just not for you.
In each case you are working with very little to go on: a week of revenue, a few mornings on the scale, two attempts at a new habit.
The story you tell yourself goes far beyond what those early results can honestly support.
Early numbers are loud, but they are not the truth.
AI can help you see this more clearly.
You can describe what happened, ask it how early you still are, and ask what a careful person would reasonably conclude at this stage.
You can ask it for different ways to read the same results and for one small experiment you could run before changing course, so that your next decision is based on thinking things through, not just on the first few numbers that happened to show up.
Next we will put the idea in plain language and show where it quietly influences your health, your money, and your habits.
2. The Law of Small Numbers in plain language
The Law of Small Numbers is a fancy way of saying something very simple:
Do not treat the first few results as if they already prove the whole story.
Most of the time, you are looking at the very beginning of a process, such as a week of sales.
Your brain does not like that uncertainty.
It wants a clear answer, so it promotes those first results to truth much faster than they deserve.
A quick example
Imagine two people launch a small offer.
One gets 3 sales from 10 visitors, the other gets 3 sales from 200 visitors.
They can both say “I made 3 sales”, but for one that is strong evidence and for the other it is almost nothing.
Small samples do not just hide the full picture, they also invite very confident stories that are not actually supported.
When it helps
Use the Law of Small Numbers when:
You are at the very beginning of something, for example a habit or project
You feel a strong urge to make a big decision after a short run
You have very little to go on and are willing to let AI challenge your first reaction
In those cases, this mental model keeps you from letting the first few steps on the path define the whole journey.
When it should not be used
Be careful with this lens when:
Something is clearly extreme or harmful
The cost of being wrong is very high in one direction
You already have a lot of history, not just a few moments
The point is not to wait forever, it is to match the size of your story to what you have actually seen, and AI can help you do that on purpose.
Next we will turn this into a few simple prompts you can use with any AI assistant.
3. Prompts to Use the Law of Small Numbers With AI
The simplest way to use this mental model with AI is to literally say:
”...apply the Law of Small Numbers and help me double check I am not overreacting.”
You describe what happened, add that one line, and let the assistant push back on your first reaction.
Think of the prompts in this section as copy paste tools.
Save or bookmark this article so you can reach for them the next time a few early results start to feel like the full truth.
3.1 Quick Check for Big Thoughts From Small Results
Use this when you notice a strong story forming in your head after very little has happened.
Apply the Law of Small Numbers to this.
Ask me how many times this has actually happened or how many people were involved.
Tell me what a careful [role, for example ‘data scientist’ or ‘coach’] could reasonably conclude from that.
Help me rewrite my current conclusion so it fits what I have really seen so far.
Situation:
[describe what happened and what you are telling yourself]
If your conclusion changes when you add “so far” at the end, you were probably treating early results as final.
3.2 Noise or Signal for Spikes and Slumps
Use this when something suddenly jumps or drops and you feel the urge to react right away.
Apply the Law of Small Numbers to this short spike or slump.
Summarize what happened and over what time period.
List a few ways this could just be normal ups and downs.
List a few ways this could be the start of a real change.
Suggest one simple way to gather a bit more evidence before I decide what to do.
Situation:
[describe the spike or slump]
You are not asking AI if something is good or bad, you are asking how much weight to give it.
3.3 Minimum Trial for Habits and Projects
Use this when you want to avoid giving up on a new habit or project after the first rough patch.
Help me design a minimum trial using the Law of Small Numbers.
Given my idea and schedule, suggest a realistic minimum number of days or attempts before I am allowed to judge it.
Suggest one or two simple things I should pay attention to during that time.
Write one sentence I can save that says ‘Until [this point], I am not allowed to say this works or does not work.’
Idea or habit:
[describe what you want to try]
You are not promising to push through harm, you are simply agreeing not to quit at the first normal bump.
These prompts are there to slow you down just enough so your reaction matches how much you have actually seen.
4. Principles and Traps
Feeling a strong urge to make a big decision after very little has happened is usually a sign to slow down.
A few simple rules keep this lens practical.
Principles
Use the Law of Small Numbers best when you:
Match story to evidence
Keep your conclusion as small as what you have actually seen so far.
Say out loud how early you are
Add “so far” and “from what I have seen” to your thoughts and messages.
Notice emotional spikes
Shame, euphoria, or urgency after a short run is a cue to pause.
Decide the check before the numbers
Set a simple trial in advance, for example how many days or people, then review.
Use AI as a skeptic
Ask it to question your reaction and suggest what else could be true.
Traps
There are also a few ways to misuse this lens. Watch out for:
Hiding behind “I need more data”
Sometimes you still have to act with limited evidence, you just name it honestly.
Thinking nothing means anything
The goal is not to ignore all small signals, it is to avoid pretending they are final.
Ignoring clear danger or long patterns
This model is for early results, not for downplaying serious issues or years of repeated behavior.
Asking AI to prove you right
If you only ask for confirmation, you will get it. The prompts above help you to get a better angle on your situation.
5. From Prompt to Practice
The Law of Small Numbers starts as a line you add on purpose.
You notice you are about to call something a success or a failure very early, you describe what happened to your AI, and you finish with:
“…apply the Law of Small Numbers and help me double check I am not overreacting.”
Pick one real situation right now, for example a habit you are close to giving up on, a project you are judging very early, or a number on a screen that keeps bothering you, and run that prompt once. Let the assistant show you how early you still are, suggest another way to see it, and propose one small next step.
You are not trying to remove emotion, you are just making sure your story grows at the same speed as your evidence.
I love this, Hannes.
Definitely helps us see things more objectively given our situation.
There’s also something called “The Beginner’s Hell.”
You can’t really see much progress when you’re just getting started. And this is not a bug; it’s a feature. We tend to go hard on ourselves, yet we rarely see that this is the journey we need to go through. There’s nothing wrong with us, this is simply the reality as it is.
This is fantastic. So much information here you could easily break it down more for us, as there’s clearly a huge depth in your knowledge. This is such an excellent tool and your insights are really helpful.