Stop Letting One Signal Decide
How to react less and decide better with AI
TL;DR
If you’ve ever seen one signal (a scary headline, one bad review, one symptom) and instantly felt “this changes everything,” this is for you.The mistake is simple: one vivid signal hijacks your judgment.
The fix is simple: start with the baseline (what usually happens), then decide what to do.This is a small upgrade you can use every day:
a quick check that makes your beliefs calmer and more accurate
a way to take small, low-regret actions without spiraling
a few simple AI prompts to think deeper, not faster
Framing: stop letting one signal steer the whole story
Most overreactions have the same shape.
Something happens.
Your brain grabs it.
A story appears fully formed: this means X… so I should do Y… right now.
Two normal-life versions:
1) The headline spike
You see: “DOG LANDS PLANE AFTER PILOT FAINTS — Experts Shocked.”
For 30 seconds, your brain goes: *Wait, are we living in a different world now?*
Then the quieter truth returns: most days, life stays mostly the same. Outliers just get microphones.
2) The one scary health signal
You google a symptom and get: “THIS COULD BE A SIGN OF A SERIOUS CONDITION.”
Instantly your mind jumps to the worst story.
But one signal isn’t a verdict. Rare things are still rare, and false alarms happen.
The goal isn’t to be numb. It’s to add one small pause that asks a better first question:
Before I react to this signal… what usually happens in situations like this?
That question is the whole upgrade. Next, I’ll explain it in plain language and show how to use it (with AI).
Base rates in plain language (with tiny examples)
A base rate is the baseline: how often something is true in real life.
A signal is the thing you just saw: a headline, a message, a symptom, a test result.
Base rate neglect is what happens when you let the signal do all the talking.
Here’s the simple upgrade:
Start with the baseline. Then let the signal adjust you.
Example 1: the headline spike
Signal: “DOG LANDS PLANE — Experts Shocked.”
Baseline: most headlines are outliers, and most days your actual life doesn’t change.
Better take: “Interesting. Probably not a new era.”
Low-regret action (if it matters): check again tomorrow, or look for a second reliable source before you change any belief or plan.
Example 2: the scary health signal
Signal: “This could be serious.”
Baseline: most symptoms have common explanations; false alarms happen.
Better take: “I shouldn’t ignore it, but I also shouldn’t jump to the worst story.”
Low-regret action: do one calm next step (write symptoms down, check for clear red flags, or book a professional check if needed).
One more important detail: baselines don’t have to be precise.
If you don’t know the exact base rate, you can still use a rough range:
rare
sometimes
common
That alone stops the signal from hijacking your brain.
Next, we’ll make this practical: a few simple prompts to use AI as a thinking partner (pause → baseline → decide).
Prompts: use AI as a thinking partner (pause → baseline → decide)
AI is useful here for one reason: it can slow you down and show you alternatives when your brain is locked onto one story. You are not asking it for the truth. You are asking it for a clearer way to think.
3.1 Simple prompt: “What’s the baseline?”
Use this when something feels urgent and you notice your mind spinning a story.
I might be overreacting. Help me sanity-check this.
What’s the usual outcome in situations like this?
What’s a more realistic take than my first reaction?
What’s one small thing I should do before I decide?Situation: [what happened + what you’re about to do]
3.2 Simple prompt: “How common is this (roughly)?”
Use this when you do not need precision. You just want to stop guessing wildly.
Help me estimate how common this is, in plain language.
What group should I compare to (people like me, in this situation)?
Give me a rough range (rare / sometimes / common) and why.
Then tell me what I should do if it’s rare vs common.Situation: [signal + decision]
3.3 Inverted prompt (compact): “Beat the base rate”
Use this when you do not just want the most likely outcome. You want to do better than default.
Help me beat the base rate here.
If I do what most people do, what’s the likely outcome?
What do most people do that keeps them stuck there?
Give me 3 specific behaviors to outperform the baseline (one can be outside-the-box).
For each: the trade (cost/risk) + the upside.
Pick one for me and turn it into a 7-day plan (what I’ll do + when + what to track).
Situation: [1–2 sentences + constraints]
3.4 Action prompt (compact): “Make a calm plan I’ll actually follow”
Use this when you want a response that improves your life even if your scary story is wrong.
Help me respond in a calm, useful way.
What’s the most likely normal outcome here?
What’s one small action I can take today (10 minutes) that helps either way?
What’s one simple rule to prevent overreacting next time?
What should I check in 7 days to see if this worked?
Situation: [one sentence about what happened + what I feel like doing]
4) Principles and traps
Principles
Start with “what usually happens”
Before you react to a signal, name the baseline. Your first story is rarely the most accurate one.
Default to baseline for beliefs, prepare for tails with actions
Most of the time, the boring outcome wins. If the stakes are high, take a small, low-regret step while you learn more.
Use the right comparison group
Not “people in general.” People in your situation. Same context, same constraints.
If you do not know the baseline, use a rough range
Rare, sometimes, common. That is enough to stop wild overreactions.
Get one more datapoint before you commit
Another day, another source, another opinion, another check. One extra data point beats one dramatic signal.
Traps
One vivid story overrides reality
Outliers get microphones. Your brain treats them like the new normal.
The wrong baseline
You used a reference that does not match your situation, so the “calm conclusion” is fake calm.
Old baselines
Sometimes the environment really changes. If the context shifted, treat the old baseline as a starting point, not a rule.
All or nothing thinking
“This changes everything” or “this means nothing.” Real life is usually in the middle.
Using the baseline as an excuse to do nothing
Baselines are for better decisions, not for passivity. If something matters, take the small step and collect better signal.
The weekly practice that keeps you grounded
Once a week, take 10 minutes and do a quick reset.
Ask yourself:
What signal did I overreact to this week?
What was the baseline I ignored?
Where did “usually nothing changes” turn out to be right?
Where might the baseline be shifting?
What is one small check I will do next time before I decide?
That is it.
If you do this weekly, you start to notice a pattern: most of your stress comes from treating a single signal like a verdict.
This week: pick one area (news, health worry, work decision). The next time something spikes your emotions, do the baseline check once, then take one small low-regret step.